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Shiloh R. Lueschow1, Timothy J. Boly2, Elizabeth Jasper3,4,5, Ravi M. Patel6 and Steven J. McElroy 1,2 A critical evaluation of current definitions of necrotizing enterocolitis. May 2021. Pediatric Research

BACKGROUND: Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a devastating intestinal disease of premature infants, with significant mortality and long-term morbidity among survivors. Multiple NEC definitions exist, but no formal head-to-head evaluation has been performed. We hypothesized that contemporary definitions would perform better in evaluation metrics than Bell’s and range features would be more frequently identified as important than yes/no features.

METHODS: Two hundred and nineteen patients from the University of Iowa hospital with NEC, intestinal perforation, or NEC concern were identified from a 10-year retrospective cohort. NEC presence was confirmed by a blinded investigator. Evaluation metrics were calculated using statistics and six supervised machine learning classifiers for current NEC definitions. Feature importance evaluation was performed on each decision tree classifier.

RESULTS: Newer definitions outperformed Bell’s staging using both standard statistics and most machine learning classifiers. The decision tree classifier had the highest overall machine learning scores, which resulted in Non-Bell definitions having high sensitivity (0.826, INC) and specificity (0.969, ST), while Modified Bell (IIA+) had reasonable sensitivity (0.783), but poor specificity (0.531). Feature importance evaluation identified nine criteria as important for diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS: This preliminary study suggests that Non-Bell NEC definitions may be better at diagnosing NEC and calls for further examination of definitions and important criteria.

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