Guzzetta G, Riccardo F, Marziano V, Poletti P, Trentini F, Bella A, Andrianou X, Del Manso M, Fabiani M, Bellino S, Boros S, Urdiales AM, Vescio MF, Piccioli A; COVID-19 Working Group,, Brusaferro S, Rezza G, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Merler S. Impact of a Nationwide Lockdown on SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility, Italy. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Oct 20;27(1). doi: 10.3201/eid2701.202114. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 33080168.
On March 11, 2020, Italy imposed a national lockdown to curtail the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We estimate that, 14 days after lockdown, the net reproduction number had dropped below 1 and remained stable at »0.76 (95% CI 0.67-0.85) in all regions for >3 of the following weeks